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“Best UFO Cases” by Isaac Koi PART 13: The Top 100 UFO cases
Given the problems with the various lists covered in Parts 3 to 12, I thought that it might be interesting to find out which UFO cases are most frequently discussed in books about ufos and SETI.
If ufologists wrote books solely with the objective of presenting the best available evidence, then the most frequently discussed cases would be the ones that the most authors regarded as the best cases.
I therefore set out to prepare a list of the UFO incidents most frequently discussed in a reasonably large sample of UFO and SETI books.
Over four years and 963 books later, I have prepared a “Top 100” list of UFO cases based on the frequency of discussion within these books.
Each of the 963 books (and each of the references to the discussion of each of the “Top 100” cases) are listed in a document I refer to as Koi Chrono Core (“KCC”) which I made available free of charge on the Internet back in 2006 (see Footnote 13.01)
Clearly this method of compiling a list of the “top” cases is biased in favour of older cases. The older the case, the more books have been published since that case. Thus, an incident in 1947 discussed in 20% of UFO books published since that date will rank higher than an incident in, say, 1999 which has been discussed in 100% of the relevant sample of UFO books published since that date. Also, since my sample of UFO/SETI books is limited to those in English, there is a strong bias in favour of books by authors from the
In decreasing order of the numbers of references, the Top 100 UFO cases were:
1. Kenneth Arnold's first sighting (1947) 359 references 11. Travis Walton abduction (1975) 114 references 21. Lakenheath episode (1956) 83 references 39. Desvergers (scoutmaster) sighting (1952) 59 references 41. Great Falls, Montana film (1950) 58 references
61. The Northeast Blackout (1965) 47 references 71. Muroc Field sightings (1947) 39 references
81. Topcliffe incident (1952) 34 references 91. Stephen Darbishire photograph (1954) 31 references 97. Farmington sightings (1950) 28 references It should be noted that I am not suggesting that UFO books are in fact written solely with the objective of presenting the best available evidence.
The objectives of authors of ufologists are not in fact limited to presenting the best case in support of an argument. Entertaining stories are included in book after book, almost regardless of their evidential value. Furthermore, some authors appear to be lazy and others are ignorant of the range of cases - thus, discussions of cases in the few books some of them have read (particularly Ruppelt, Keyhoe and Condon) get recycled endlessly – sometimes almost verbatim.
The contents of the list of the most frequently discussed UFO cases
The list above of the “Top 100” cases therefore has about as much connection to a list of the “Best 100” cases as the weekly “Top 10” popular music charts have to a list of the “best music”. The weekly “Top 10” music charts are lists of the music with the most sales. This is arguably not the same as the best music. Music charts frequently include items that would cause a music connoisseur to shudder (e.g. “The Birdie Song” by The Tweets , Black Lace's “Agadoo”, the Macarena, and anything by Iron Maiden and similar noise-makers (see Footnote 13.02 and Footnote 13.03). Similarly, the fact that Adamski’s sighting is in the list of the Top 100 at all (let alone as the Number 3 case) may cause some shudders.
On the positive side, it makes sense for authors to illustrate their points by reference to cases that readers may be familiar with (i.e. the "classics") so that basic details can be assumed rather than having to have everything spelt out in detail. It is notable that when various ufologists have advanced lists of the “best” UFO cases, generally the only ones that are referred to in subsequent discussions are ones which are included within the “Top 100” list above.
If a ufologist mentions during an online debate his list of the “best” cases and (as happens fairly frequently) includes one or more cases which are not within the “Top 100” list above, the cases not within the “Top 100” are generally ignored in any subsequent discussion. When ufologists do give a list of the “best” cases, they rarely provide references to material relating to these cases. If a case within such a list is not well known, rather than ask for relevant references most readers appear to simply ignore that case. Any ufologist or group preparing a list of the “best” cases may wish to keep this point in mind and include relevant references to any less well known cases.
It is notable that the above list has a considerable degree of overlap with some of the polls of ufologists discussed in Parts 5 to 9 of this article, particularly those polls which involved the largest number of researchers. I would highlight in particular the oldest poll, i.e. Vallee’s poll discussed in Part 5 – the results of which were published in 1966. Jacques Vallee himself commented that the sightings nominated in his survey were “ranked practically in the order of the publicity they have received, regardless of their intrinsic value or their convincing character … Clearly, the group take it for granted that the most publicized cases are the most convincing, when even a small amount of research would have brought to light an entirely different type of reports” (see Footnote 13.04). Skeptics have frequently complained that ufologists have failed to nominate the “best” cases (see Part 2) and in the absence of any response which points them at the best available evidence have tended, not unreasonably, have tended to focus upon those cases which are not frequently discussed.
However, various authors have commented on the apparent confusion between the “best” cases and those which are merely the “best publicized”. For example, Hilary Evans has written that he tends to agree with the comment of Belgian ufologist Jacques Scornaux that “The refutability of a case is directly proportional to the publicity it receives” (see Footnote 13.05). In a comment similar to the remarks made by Hilary Evans and Jacques Scornaux, Jacques Vallee has suggested that “The cases that receive a high level of media publicity are especially suspect” (see Footnote 13.06).
Jacques Vallee has suggested that Dr Menzel concentrated on the most publicized cases, rather than the best cases. He has commented that “… very few of the cases [Dr Menzel] studies would be worthy of consideration in an objective system of analysis where weights are distributed according to well-defined criteria, and not according to the amount of publicity the case has received in ‘enthusiast’ circles obviously unconcerned with scientific analysis” (see Footnote 13.07). Similarly, Vallee has suggested that “[UFO] reports are analyzed one at a time, with an amount of energy directly proportional to the publicity that they have received in specialist ‘enthusiast’ reviews or in the press, radio and television. A side effect of this process is that the most interesting reports are completely unknown to the public and to civilian scientists who might, otherwise, have a very different attitude towards the subject. The more widely discussed cases, such as
Given the number of complaints that skeptics do not address the “best” cases but merely weak cases (even if well publicized), it is very surprising that ufologists have not been more active in preparing lists of the “best” cases. In the few instances where ufologists have sat in a room together to draw up an agreed list of the “best” cases, they have subsequently done a rather poor job of drawing attention to those lists (see, for example, Part 10 and Part 11 of this article in relation to the National Enquirer’s Blue Ribbon Panel and the Rockefeller Briefing Document respectively).
In these circumstances, skeptics can hardly be blamed for having concentrated on the cases most frequently discussed in the UFO literature.
If your favourite case is not included within the “Top 100” list above, all I can say is:
(1) Blame the authors of the relevant books. They selected which cases to discuss the most, not me. The list of the “Top” 100 cases certainly does not represent my personal “Best” 100 cases.
(2) Feel free to conduct a similar exercise yourself or draw up your own list on the basis of your own (preferably expressly stated) criteria. Various possible qualitative and quantitative criteria are discussed in the final parts of this article (i.e. Part 15-29).
The next time you hear someone refer a skeptic or scientist to the UFO literature generally (or are tempted to do so yourself), pause for a moment and remember the content of the above list of the Top 100 UFO Cases. These are the sightings they will come across most frequently.
Is that what you want? If not, you will need to be more helpful than merely suggesting they read “the literature”.
REFERENCES
[Footnote 13.01]: “KCC” stands for “Koi Chrono Core”, a 1,800 page draft chronology of UFO and SETI events by Isaac Koi which can be downloaded from the Internet free of charge:
[Footnote 13.02] See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/848510.stm
[Footnote 13.03] See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/850252.stm
[Footnote 13.04] See “Challenge to Science : The UFO Enigma” (1966) by Jacques Vallee and Janine Vallee at page 286 (in Appendix 5) of the Ballantine Books paperback edition, at page 236 of the Tandem paperback.
[Footnote 13.05] Hilary Evans in his “The Evidence for UFOs” (1983) at pages 16-17 (in Chapter 1) of the Aquarian softcover edition, citing Inforespace, Brussels, No. 4 (
[Footnote 13.06] Jacques Vallee in his “Confrontations” (1990) at page 15 (in the Introduction) of the Ballantine Books paperback edition.
[Footnote 13.07] Jacques Vallee in his “Anatomy of a Phenomenon” (1965) at page 90 (in Chapter 4) of the Henry Regnery hardback edition (with the same page numbering in the Tandem paperback edition), pages 97-98 of the Ballantine Books paperback edition, page 130 of the 1966 revised and enlarged Ace Star paperback edition.
[Footnote 13.08] Jacques Vallee in his “Anatomy of a Phenomenon” (1965) at page 90 (in Chapter 4) of the Henry Regnery hardback edition (with the same page numbering in the Tandem paperback edition), page 91 of the Ballantine Books paperback edition, page 124 of the 1966 revised and enlarged Ace Star paperback edition.
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Best UFO Cases 13. The Top 100 UFO Cases