1948

  • 1948.0000 Fate magazine starts

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    During 1948, “Fate”magazine was started by Raymond Palmer and Curtis Fuller.

     

     

     

     

     

  • 1948.0107 Captain Mantell incident

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    Captain Mantell incident

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    On 7 January 1948, Captain Thomas F Mantell Jr (Air National Guard F-51 Mustang fighter pilot) dies during attempted intercept near Godman Air Force Base (near Fort Knox), Kentucky.

     

    Claims to fame

    This incident is Case 6 in Isaac Koi's "Top 100" article, since it was referred to in 179 of the books covered by that article.

     

    Isaac Koi’s “ICES” Rating for this sighting = 5,824 (out of a potential score of 14*14*14*14 i.e. 38,416)

    (1) “Impact” Rating of 14 (out of a potential score of 14), because it is Case 6 in Isaac Koi's "Top 100" article.

    (2) “Credibility” Rating of 13 (out of a potential score of 14) because an object was reported by several people and Mantell died while attempting to chase it. The debate has centered on what he was actually attempting to chase.

    (2) “Expert” Rating of 8 (out of a potential score of 14). It is given this slightly above neutral rating because while (at the time of writing) it has not been included in any of the short lists of the best cases produced by various UFO researchers that have been compiled by Isaac Koi (see the “Best UFO Cases" article at PART 3: Existing lists by various individuals) this incident did come fifth in a survey in 1965 by Jacques Vallee of the opinion of various UFO groups as to the most significant UFO sightings..

    (4)“Strangeness” Rating of 4 (out of a potential score of 14). The sighting has a relatively low strangeness rating since there is relatively limited evidence to be explained as to the nature of the object in the sky. That evidence is largely consistent with a large balloon.

     

     

    Sections below:

    1. Web Resources

    2. Book References

    3. Other material

     

     

  • 1948.0122 Project Sign begins

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    On 22 January 1948, Project Sign (publicly known as “Project Saucer”) officially began operations.

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • 1948.0211 Project Sign instructions

     

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    Project Sign instructions

    On 11 February 1948, Project Sign personnel receive instructions, referring to their task as the “Evaluation of Unidentified Flying Objects”.

    (Reference: HQ AMC Technical Instruction Number 2185)

     

  • 1948.0317 Advisory Board meeting

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    On 17 March 1948, an Air Force Scientific Advisory Board meeting includes a briefing by Colonel McCoy which mentions Project Sign.

     

     

     

     

  • 1948.0724 Chiles Whitted sighting

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    Chiles Whitted sighting

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    On 24 July 1948, Eastern Airlines DC-3 pilot Captain Clarence S Chiles and co-pilot John B Whitted, on trip from Houston, Texas to Atlanta (with intermediate stops in between) report a UFO near Montgomery, Alabama at approximately 2.45am.

     

    This incident is Case 10 in Isaac Koi's "Top 100" article, since it was referred to in 115 of the books covered by that article.

     

    Isaac Koi’s “ICES” Rating for this sighting = 8,190 (out of a potential score of 14*14*14*14 i.e. 38,416)

    (1) “Impact” Rating of 14 (out of a potential score of 14), because it is Case 10 in Isaac Koi's "Top 100" article.

    (2) “Credibility” Rating of 13 (out of a potential score of 14) because shooting clearly did take place on the relevant night. The debate has centered on what (if anything at all) was actually there to be shot at.

    (2) “Expert” Rating of 9 (out of a potential score of 14). It is given this slightly above neutral rating because (at the time of writing) it has been included in a small number of the short lists of the best cases produced by various UFO researchers that have been compiled by Isaac Koi (see the “Best UFO Cases" article at PART 3: Existing lists by various individuals).

    (4)“Strangeness” Rating of 5 (out of a potential score of 14). The sighting has a relatively low strangeness rating since several authors (particularly Philip Klass) have plausibly suggested that the object seen was a meteor.

     

     

    Sections below:

    1. Web Resources

    2. Book References

    3. Other material

     

     

  • 1948.0727 Cabell memo

     

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    Cabell memo
    On 27 July 1948, Major General Cabell directed the Air Estimates Branch of Air Force Intelligence to prepare a study to determine the probability of the existence of UFOs.

     

     

     

     

  • 1948.0800 Estimate of the Situation

     

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    Estimate of the Situation
    In or around August 1948, Project Sign staff allegedly prepared an “Estimate of the Situation” that allegedly reached the conclusion that flying saucers were real and came from outer space.

    The alleged existence of this document is controversial, as are details such as its alleged date. It is sometimes stated to have been dated 5 August 1948, sometimes the 1 August 1948, usually simply August 1948, sometimes September 1948, occasionally October 1948 and even “in early 1949”.

     

  • 1948.1001 Gorman Dogfight Incident

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    Gorman dogfight incident

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    On 1 October 1948, Lieutenant George F Gorman of the North Dakota Air National Guard has a “dogfight” with an alleged UFO as he approached Fargo, North Dakota in an F-51.

    This incident is Case 33 in Isaac Koi's "Top 100" article, since it was referred to in 64 of the books covered by that article.

     

    Isaac Koi’s “ICES” Rating for this sighting = 5,005 (out of a potential score of 14*14*14*14 i.e. 38,416)

    (1) “Impact” Rating of 13 (out of a potential score of 14), because it is Case 33 in Isaac Koi's "Top 100" article.

    (2) “Credibility” Rating of 11 (out of a potential score of 14) because the sighting report was made by a military witness and the debate has centered on what was actually there.

    (2) “Expert” Rating of 7 (out of a potential score of 14). It is given this neutral rating because (at the time of writing) it has not been included in any of the short lists of the best cases produced by various UFO researchers that have been compiled by Isaac Koi (see the “Best UFO Cases" article at PART 3: Existing lists by various individuals), but also is not commonly given by UFO researchers as an example of an incident that can be explained by hoax, misperception or other mundane cause.

    (4)“Strangeness” Rating of 5 (out of a potential score of 14). The sighting has a relatively low strangeness rating since there several researchers (particularly Donald Menzel) have plausibly suggested that Gorman saw some form of balloon carrying a candle/light.

     

     

    Sections below:

    1. Web Resources

    2. Book References

    3. Other material

     

     

  • 1948.1011 Colonel Allen memo

     

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    Colonel Allen memo
    On 11 October 1948, a memo to Major General Cabell from Colonel Brooke Allen, Chief of the Air Estimates Branch of Air Force Inteligence, attaches a copy of a document later titled “Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States” (10 December 1948).

     

     

     

  • 1948.1100 Estimate of Situation rejected

     

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    Estimate of Situation rejected
    In or around November 1948, Air Force Chief of Staff General Hoyt S Vandenburg allegedly rejects the “Estimate of the Situation” a few days after the Gorman sighting (which happened on 1 October 1948), stating that he did not consider there to be enough evidence to support its conclusions.

     

     

     

  • 1948.1103 Origins "not discernible"

     

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    Origins "not discernible"
    On 3 November 1948, Major General C P Cabell, USAF HQ wrote to the Commanding General, AMC at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base stating that the origin of UFOs was “not discernible”.

     

     

     

     

  • 1948.1104 Top Secret document

     

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    Top Secret document
    On 4 November 1948, a formerly Top Secret Telecon (telephone conversation) Transcript (TT) was sent from U S Air Force, Europe (USAFE) intelligence (A-2) to Headquarters, Air Force Director of Intelligence (DI) at the Pentagon

    (Reference : Telecon Transcript #1524, Item #14 - Records Group 341, Entry 214, General Files, Top Secret Control # 2-5317, National Archives II, College Park, Maryland.)

     

     

  • 1948.1108 Colonel McCoy Memo

     

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    Colonel McCoy Memo
    On 8 November 1948, a letter from Colonel McCoy to General Cabell in response to further questions raised by General Cabell in the light of the memo from Colonel Brooke Allen dated 1948.1011. (Commonly referred to as “the McCoy Memo”, this is a further document that is occasionally referred to as “the Ghost of the Estimate” (although this term is more often used in relation to a document dated 1948.1210 entitled “Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States”)).

     

     

  • 1948.1210 Ghost of the Estimate

     

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    Ghost of the Estimate
    On 24 January 1878, the “Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States”, Study #203, is prepared by the USAF Directorate of Intelligence (“DI”) and the Office of Naval Intelligence. (Commonly referred to, controversially, as “the Ghost of the Estimate”. Also referred to as “Air Intelligence Report No. 100-203-79”).

     

     

     

     

  • 1948.1213 Lipp report

     

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    Lipp report

    On 13 December 1948, Dr James E Lipp of the Rand Corporation provides a report addressed to Brigadier General Putt (US Air Force Director of Research and Development).

    This report subsequently appeared as Appendix D to the Project Sign Report.

     

     

  • 1948.1216 Project Grudge name change

     

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    Project Grudge name change
    On 16 December 1948, an order was given by the Air Force director of research to change name of Project Sign to Project Grudge.

     

     

     

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